Abstract

Background: The early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) refers to the diagnosis of colorectal cancer before the age of 50 years. The global incidence and mortality rates of EOCRC in individuals under 50 years old continue to rise.
Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD2021) data, the estimated annual percentage changes and Joinpoint regression model were utilized to analyze the temporal trend of global disease burden of EOCRC from 1990 to 2021. Pearson rank correlation analysis was employed to examine the association between disease burden and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). The contribution factors of EOCRC were analyzed using decomposition analysis. Additionally, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) was employed to forecast future trends.
Result: The findings of the study revealed that in 2021, there was a higher incidence and mortality rates of EOCRC among males compared to females. Furthermore, between 1990 and 2021, there was a direct correlation between the social development and the rate of decline in EOCRC mortality. Individuals aged 30-34 experienced the highest disease burden. Simultaneously, population growth emerged as the primary contributor to the escalating disease burden of EOCRC. It was projected that the incidence rate of EOCRC would continue to rise within the next three decades.
Conclusion: The global burden of EOCRC have continued to rise from 1990 to 2021 and was projected to further increase over the next three decades. Therefore, EOCRC remained a paramount global public health challenge necessitating the development of more precise and effective strategies to address this epidemic.

Keywords

Early-onset colorectal cancer, Global Burden of Disease 2021, estimated annual percentage changes, Joinpoint regression model, decomposition analysis